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The most important moment of Clintons North Carolina campaign probably came on August 31, when the Supreme Court restored a week of voting, beginning October 20, which the Republican-led legislature had struck from the calendar. (An appeals court had ruled that the law, which also included provisions requiring voters to present identification and pre-registering teenagers ahead of their eighteenth birthdays, had been drafted to target African Americans with almost surgical precision.) Those restored seven days have proven crucial to the math that makes Democrats newly competitive in North Carolina, where Obama won in 2008, and lost by only 100,000 votes in 2012: more thanone-tenth of the votes Clinton needs to win will come from African Americans who cast ballots during the equivalent period in 2012. During that week, African Americans make up one-third of the electorate even though they amount to only 23 percent of registrants statewide. In North Carolina, about halfof this years likely electorate is past early voters, but they are unevenly distributed by both race and partisanship. Two-thirds of the

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Democratic base has taken advantage of the states generous early-voting rules, while only 57 percent of Republican base voters have. Given that Democrats have a large enough coalition to push her well beyond the win numbermore than half

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of Clintons GOTV targets are African AmericanClintons campaign is likely to try to mobilize as many of them as early as possible. If polls continue to show her relatively strong here, Clinton could know well before election day that she has banked enough votes to win, and shift her late spending to other states where she has still has to win over persuadables. There is a Republican path to victory here almost exclusively through mobilization, but Trumps apparent neglect of a ground organizationat the end of August he had just one field office in the state suggests he is not trying to win that way. Instead, he will hope that the state party, which has both an incumbent governor and senator on the ballot, turns out

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some of those GOTV targets. But if only half of them end up voting, Trump will find there are not enough persuadables to reach his win number.

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